Forex daily analysis from FIBO Group. Part 2 (2021/12/14) -

Forex daily analysis from FIBO Group. Part 2 (2021/12/14)

Uploaded by Jacqueline Arbour on December 15, 2021 at 7:10 am

Forex daily analysis from FIBO Group. Part 2 (2021/12/14)

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Overview Today's capital market activity is quiet ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Thursday’s ECB meeting.
The dollar is mixed with the major currencies. The Canadian, Australian and Norwegian dollars are softer than the euro and Swiss Franc with a gain of around 0.25% to 0.35%.

Gold is consolidating and remains within yesterday's range ($1782-$1791). Oil is also trading quietly, with the January WTI contract at $70.50-$72.00. The US natgas price has dropped by nearly 30% over the past two weeks, and is down for 4.4% this week.

Asia Pacific

Japan's year-end pressures are apparent in Japan's money market, so the BOJ responded by organizing an unscheduled repo operation for its second consecutive session.
The US offered to lift Japan's steel and aluminum tariffs under similar terms to the EU-US deal.

We still have some regional highlights to report on this week. Tomorrow China will report November retail sales, industrial output, new home prices and investment. The surveyed unemployment rate will also be reported. Tomorrow is Japan's tertiary indicator (October), along with a Thursday trade balance (it almost always deteriorates since October) and the Friday BOJ meeting. The Australian government reports its November jobs data in Canberra on Thursday morning.

The dollar today is restricted to a quarter of the yen range higher than JPY113.50. So far, it has traded below JPY114.00 in this month. The Australian dollar reached a session high of $0.7135 in Europe's morning, but was met by a wall.

Europe

Solid employment data was reported by the UK. The November claimant count rate fell to 4.9%, from 5.0% in the initial report. The rate of earnings growth decreased to 4.9% from 5.9% (three months, year-over–year). After a 247k increase in employment, the number of employed rose by almost 150k in three months. Tomorrow will see the UK's November CPI/PPI.
After a 0.2% drop in September, the euro area's industrial output rose 1.1% in October. On Thursday, the preliminary PMI will be released ahead of the ECB meeting. Activity is likely to slow down.
Although the euro has risen in the European morning, it remains stuck in a narrow range. The range for the last five sessions has been a little less that a cent ($1.1260 - $1.1355).

America

Today, the US releases November producer prices. The headline rate will rise to above 9% while the core rate hovers around 7%. Tomorrow will see the release of the November retail sales and the December Empire manufacturing survey. These numbers are expected to be lower than the 1.7% headline rise in October.
The Senate will likely move to raise the debt ceiling today. However, the Treasury plans a large bill payment ($175 billion) to make sure it has enough space to settle coupon auctions.

According to the Bank of Canada, its inflation target is 2%. However, it can go higher to ensure "maximum sustained employment". For the fifth consecutive session, the Canadian dollar is retreating.

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Overview Today’s capital market activity is quiet ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Thursday’s ECB meeting.
The dollar is mixed with the major currencies. The Canadian, Australian and Norwegian dollars are softer than the euro and Swiss Franc with a gain of around 0.25% to 0.35%.

Gold is consolidating and remains within yesterday’s range ($1782-$1791). Oil is also trading quietly, with the January WTI contract at $70.50-$72.00. The US natgas price has dropped by nearly 30% over the past two weeks, and is down for 4.4% this week.

Asia Pacific

Japan’s year-end pressures are apparent in Japan’s money market, so the BOJ responded by organizing an unscheduled repo operation for its second consecutive session.
The US offered to lift Japan’s steel and aluminum tariffs under similar terms to the EU-US deal.

We still have some regional highlights to report on this week. Tomorrow China will report November retail sales, industrial output, new home prices and investment. The surveyed unemployment rate will also be reported. Tomorrow is Japan’s tertiary indicator (October), along with a Thursday trade balance (it almost always deteriorates since October) and the Friday BOJ meeting. The Australian government reports its November jobs data in Canberra on Thursday morning.

Europe

Solid employment data was reported by the UK. The November claimant count rate fell to 4.9%, from 5.0% in the initial report. The rate of earnings growth decreased to 4.9% from 5.9% (three months, year-over–year). After a 247k increase in employment, the number of employed rose by almost 150k in three months. Tomorrow will see the UK’s November CPI/PPI.
After a 0.2% drop in September, the euro area’s industrial output rose 1.1% in October. On Thursday, the preliminary PMI will be released ahead of the ECB meeting. Activity is likely to slow down.
Although the euro has risen in the European morning, it remains stuck in a narrow range. The range for the last five sessions has been a little less that a cent ($1.1260 – $1.1355).

America

According to the Bank of Canada, its inflation target is 2%. However, it can go higher to ensure “maximum sustained employment”. For the fifth consecutive session, the Canadian dollar is retreating.

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Tags: 2021/12/14, Analysis, Daily, FIBO, Forex, FROM, GROUP, Part
Categories: News

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